upk.ch.2Centre for Addictive Disorders, Department for Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zurich, 8001, Zurich, Switzerland.3University of Basel Psychiatric Hospital, Division of Addictive Disorders, Wilhelm Klein-Strasse 27, 4002, Basel, Switzerland.4Department for Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zurich, 8001, Zurich, Switzerland.5University of Basel Psychiatric Hospital, Division of Addictive Disorders, Wilhelm Klein-Strasse 27, 4002, Basel, Switzerland; Centre for Addictive Disorders, Department for Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zurich, 8001, Zurich, Switzerland.AbstractBACKGROUND:

Alternative cannabis regulation models are discussed and implemented worldwide. A baseline scenario under the assumption of no policy or market changes may prove useful to forecast cannabis use and treatment demand and evaluate changes in legislation.

METHODS:

Based on data of the Continuous Rolling Survey of Addictive Behaviours and Related Risks on cannabis use, age, gender and nationality from 2011 to 2015, we used general estimating equation analysis to model lifetime and 30-days prevalence from 2015 to 2045 in Switzerland accounting for demographic trends.

RESULTS:

Lifetime prevalence of cannabis use is projected to grow from 28.3% (CI 95% 27.8-28.8) in 2015 to 42.0% (CI 95% 41.0-43.0) in 2045. 30-days prevalence would increase slightly from 2.70% (CI 95% 2.53-2.88) to 3.39% (CI 95% 3.11-3.66). Due to population growth, absolute numbers with past 30-day cannabis use are estimated to increase from 202,784 (CI 95% 189,534-216,035) to 314,302 (CI 95% 288,504-340,100). Among those aged under 30 years no substantial change in lifetime and 30-days prevalence of cannabis use is projected. Larger changes are estimated to occur in the age group 30

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